The fears and hopes from a developing country that watched as the controversial former president regained his place in the White House.
“When America sneezes, the world catches a cold.”
It’s an old saying that takes cues from an even older quote but it still rings true. Like it or not, the United States of America remains to be one of the most consequential nations in the world. Its level of involvement in global affairs, its military might and the size of its economy are such that any quiver in the country could send ripples felt in other parts of the world.
On November 6, 2024, the country did more than quiver. It reelected the controversial Donald Trump as its next president and, depending on who you talk to, it can be seen either as a move towards “greatness” or—as they old saying goes—a “sneeze.” Of course, there were also those who thought it was far worse than that but the point remains: it wasn’t ignored.
Take, for example, my home country, a developing democracy literally distanced from the States by the biggest ocean in the world. In the Philippines, Trump’s win didn’t go unnoticed. Online, news of his surprising victory was polarizing and reactions to it were heavily varied.
Some expressed concern; Trump after all is a populist whose rhetoric, behavior and policies have attacked women, minorities and other countries. He also beat current US Vice President Kamala Harris; a woman of color deemed qualified for the post by a number of people because of her diverse involvement in public service. His win even drew parallels from the last Philippine presidential election. In 2022 President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (a dictator’s son embroiled in numerous controversies) beat former Vice President Leni Roberdo (a woman whose governance record remains as one of the cleanest in the country.) There may be those who protest the comparison between Harris and Robredo but a glaring similar remains: their losses left people worried.
How stable and progressive is America? Is the recent election indicative of just how deeply rooted misogyny and bigotry are in that country? Will a Trump presidency encourage a culture deemed dangerous for women and minorities? This one didn’t seem farfetched. Immediately after the results started to lean heavily towards his favor, rhetoric against them started surfacing on social media with the most controversial one coming from far-right pundit Nick Fuentes. “Your body, my choice. Forever,” he posted on X. To which one user replied grimly: “the masks are off.”
On the other side of the spectrum, however, there were those who earnestly celebrated the win. Conservatives against abortion and LGBT+ rights viewed it as a promising move from one of the most powerful countries in the world. Many dubbed it a victory over the so-called “woke mind virus” that more or less challenges traditional values and called for change that can veer towards the radical.
Few in my country ignored the election result and some of those who tried to could only ask everyone else the same thing: “tiga-US ka ba (Are you an American citizen?)” No. But that didn’t stop me (and many) from feeling what happened.
The United States—the very nature of it–prevents us from doing so.
The Wild Card
The United States has a long-standing relationship with other countries and the Philippines is among them.
The Philippines was once a colony of the US and many of its attributes have been carried over by the country even after it gained independence. Therefore, as each new American president takes office, the impact reverberates across the Pacific, shaping the Philippines’ political and economic landscape in unexpected ways.
Trump’s victory, however, has stirred a unique blend of emotions among Filipinos. His bold, confrontational style and “America First” approach have generated a range of reactions—some of which are laced with hope, while others are tinged with concern.
For many, there’s a lingering apprehension that Trump’s policies could signal a retreat from international cooperation, which might result in less aid and fewer diplomatic engagements with developing nations like the Philippines. The shift away from global alliances raises questions about the Philippines’ position in U.S. foreign policy priorities.
However, Trump’s presidency also sparks a cautious optimism for some Filipinos. Known for his rapport with former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Trump’s administration could signify the possibility of a closer bilateral relationship with the current administration. His previous praise of Duterte’s strongman tactics—though controversial—has left an impression on many who see Trump’s assertiveness as a strength. Trump’s show of nationalism, often seen as divisive in the United States and in the Philippines, resonates with some Filipinos who voted for Duterte because of showy antics meant to convey a similar sentiment. His direct approach, while polarizing, feels oddly familiar to us.
A closed door or a window of opportunity?
For Filipinos, few issues strike closer to the heart than U.S. immigration policy, especially given the United States’ role as the top destination for Filipino migrants. With millions of Filipinos either working in America or dreaming of joining family there, any change in immigration policy ripples through communities and affects countless lives.
As Trump potentially steps back into office, memories of his previous tenure’s hardline stance on immigration—marked by stringent visa restrictions, tightened border policies, and accelerated deportation orders—stir a complex mix of emotions across the Filipino diaspora.
During Trump’s last presidency, these restrictive measures left the Filipino community feeling vulnerable and uncertain about their future prospects in the U.S. The fear that these policies might resurface causes concern for many Filipino families who depend on remittances from their loved ones abroad. Stricter visa policies could curtail these vital income sources, making it harder for overseas Filipinos to secure new work opportunities.
Yet, amid this anxiety, a quieter current of hope persists. Some Filipinos believe that Trump’s “America First” policies, which prioritize job security for U.S. citizens, might indirectly benefit legal Filipino immigrants and permanent residents. These individuals could face less competition from undocumented workers, potentially securing a more stable foothold in the American workforce.
For a young Filipina professional eyeing the U.S., this climate brings a bittersweet dilemma. The American Dream is as enticing as ever, but the path to residency now feels steeper and more uncertain. This duality—of allure and apprehension—mirrors the broader sentiment in the Philippines where Trump’s immigration policies loom as both a potential roadblock for aspiring immigrants and a possible advantage for those already settled.
Beyond that, there are deeper ties between the American and Philippine economies. After all, there’s the outsourcing industry serving as a major employment driver for Filipinos. Trump’s previous stance on outsourcing, encouraging American companies to “bring jobs back home” stirred concerns about the potential loss of U.S.-based clients for Filipino call centers and business process outsourcing (BPO) companies. Today, as Trump’s administration refocuses on American job creation, Filipino workers in the BPO sector may once again feel the tension and a significant number of them are women.
According to a report by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies in 2018, BPO jobs in the Philippines are mostly occupied by college-educated women. They also tend to hold higher-level positions in the industry. Apparently, around 59% of all managers in the sector are women. If Trump succeeds in encouraging the sector’s players to bring work back into the US, there is a high chance that many of them will be affected.
However, there’s a hopeful perspective: Trump’s administration could encourage U.S. companies to further invest in the Philippines, given the nation’s skilled, English-speaking workforce. If Trump’s policies can balance protectionism with foreign investment, the Philippines might continue to be an attractive outsourcing hub, ultimately sustaining jobs for countless Filipinos.
Moreover, Filipinos working in U.S. subsidiaries—particularly in retail, manufacturing, and tech sectors—may be optimistic. Trump’s administration might implement policies that increase American business investments abroad, potentially boosting local employment rates and strengthening the Philippine economy.
Testy Waters
Countries in Southeast Asia—particularly mine—are keenly attuned to how Trump’s foreign policy could shape the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in light of his past dealings with China. In his first term, Trump’s relationship with China was famously unpredictable, marked by sharp trade confrontations followed by brief spells of diplomacy. This complex dynamic has left many Filipinos wondering what a renewed Trump administration could mean for one of their country’s most pressing geopolitical issues: the West Philippine Sea dispute.
The Philippines, facing a long-standing territorial standoff with China over these contested waters, sees both risk and opportunity in Trump’s approach to foreign policy. Some Filipinos are hopeful that Trump’s outspoken stance against China’s rising influence might translate into stronger U.S. support for the Philippines’ maritime claims. With Chinese vessels frequently encroaching on Philippine waters, the hope is that Trump’s return could mean more decisive U.S. action to counter China’s presence, a development that would be especially welcome to coastal Filipinos who rely on the sea for their daily sustenance and economic stability.
For fishing communities, a firm U.S. backing could mean greater security in accessing their traditional fishing grounds without fear of harassment from Chinese forces.
Yet, Trump’s unpredictable style and “America First” ideology make many Filipinos wary of placing too much trust in U.S. assistance. While some are optimistic that Trump’s tough stance could serve Philippine interests, there’s also a cautious understanding that America’s strategic goals might not always align with those of the Philippines. Filipinos know that U.S. foreign policy can shift abruptly and are mindful that America’s involvement is often driven by its own geopolitical calculations.
This dual perspective—hope for reinforced alliances balanced by a call for self-reliance—is becoming more prominent in Filipino discourse. As much as they desire support from the U.S. in defending their territorial waters, Filipinos are also increasingly vocal about the need for a stronger national defense and a foreign policy that prioritizes Filipino interests first.
Trump’s return to office raises the question: Will the Philippines find a robust ally in the U.S., or will they once again be left to navigate the treacherous waters of the West Philippine Sea largely on their own?
Optimism or delusion?
In developing countries like the Philippines, people tend to be hopeful because many do not have a choice.
They work and they do their best to move forward but they also acknowledge that there are always larger forces at work. This is why Filipinos have the saying “nahala na,” which reflects a certain resilience and acceptance of life’s uncertainties. It’s an attitude of “whatever will be, will be” but with a twist—a fierce determination to make the most of whatever comes their way.
As Trump’s presidency introduces a new wave of policies, people like us are prepared to face whatever impact this may bring on our daily lives. This spirit is especially alive among young Filipinos, many of whom see Trump’s policies as yet another challenge that will push them to excel further. Those who hope to migrate or work in the United States are adapting to the possibility of stricter immigration policies by honing their skills and staying competitive in the global market.
Many young Filipinos, inspired by family members abroad or stories of successful immigrants, are doubling down on their education and professional development, making themselves valuable assets whether they stay in the Philippines or venture abroad.
At the same time, Filipinos back home remain rooted in their sense of community and solidarity. They support each other through economic and social challenges, standing together through the ups and downs that global politics may bring.
Trump’s “America First” stance may, in some ways, be a reminder for Filipinos or other nationalities to also put their countries first—to continue building a stronger, more self-reliant nation.
And therein lies the irony.
Throughout his campaign, Trump—now the incoming president of the United States—promised to close ranks, to bring a nation closer to itself, to make an America less involved with the affairs of others while it concentrates on its own situation. But by doing so, we—outside the US—may feel the country’s presence more. We’re only now waiting on whether or not that presence will be “cold.”
